SinkAlert ประเมินความเสี่ยงหลุมยุบเชิงพื้นที่ในกรุงเทพฯ–ปริมณฑลด้วย
Random Forest วิจัย (phase_b_rf_v1_56) จากข้อมูลเปิด —
ยังไม่ใช่ระบบปฏิบัติการ (operational_use=false) และไม่ออกแจ้งเตือน CAP อัตโนมัติ
แคตตาล็อกเหตุการณ์ที่ยืนยันแล้วถึง 54 เหตุการณ์ BMR / 49 จุดไม่ซ้ำ (Round 11; docs/117)
แต่โมเดลบนเว็บยังตรึงที่ชุดเทรนเดิม 12 บวก / 60 ลบ — รีเทรนป้ายหนา + spatial-block CV
(v1_89–v1_96) ไม่ผ่านเกตคู่ จึงไม่โปรโมต: ซื่อสัตย์กว่าการอ้างตัวเลขสูงจากชุดเล็ก
ต้องการความร่วมมือข้อมูล: MEA / MWA / LiCSBAS (หรือ PSI ระดับเมือง) และพันธมิตร GISTDA (RS / InSAR / ข้อมูลเปิดเชิงลึก) เพื่อปลดล็อกเส้นทางปฏิบัติการ
SinkAlert ships a frozen open-data Random Forest susceptibility layer
(phase_b_rf_v1_56) for BMR research screening only —
operational_use=false, never auto-CAP. Cite OOF/LOPO metrics, not train accuracy.
Verified news catalog is now 54 BMR events / 49 unique points (<100 m co-located flagged;
2026-07-29 Round 11 · docs/117). The web default remains the 12-positive freeze:
denser-label LOPO (v1_95 AP 0.648 / F1 0.591) and spatial-block CV (v1_96 k-means AP ~0.38 / AUC ~0.75)
failed dual gates vs v1.56 (AP ~0.945 / F1 ~0.957). Holding the freeze is scientifically honest —
more labels + geographic CV expose open-proxy limits, not a free accuracy upgrade.
Collaboration ask: MEA / MWA underground GIS, citywide LiCSBAS / numeric PSI, and a GISTDA data partnership (flood / land-use / InSAR path) to unlock an operational track.
What the open-data RF layer is, how it is validated, which rasters and vectors it uses, why denser labels did not promote a new web model, and what partner data unlocks next.
Enterprise-oriented Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) sinkhole / multi-hazard ops + citizen reporting platform (BDI Hackathon 2026 finalist). Combines citizen reports (web + LINE OA), a verified news-mined incident catalog, research susceptibility mapping, and a Contabo-hosted dashboard with an MHEWS research API layer.
Audience for this page: GISTDA GIS / remote-sensing specialists evaluating whether the science layer is honest enough to discuss data partnership — not a CAP product pitch.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Web model | phase_b_rf_v1_56 — sklearn RF, 500 trees, max_depth=4, frozen 2026-07-29 |
| Train labels (freeze) | 12 BMR positives / 60 negatives |
| Catalog now | 54 verified BMR events · 49 unique points (<100 m) + 2 national held-out (docs/106 · docs/117) |
| Latest denser LOPO | v1_95 (54 events) AP 0.648 / F1 0.591 · v1_96 unique LOPO AP 0.593 / F1 0.542 → HELD |
| Spatial-block CV | v1_96 k-means k=8 AP ~0.376 / F1 ~0.436 / AUC ~0.750 (diagnostic; not web default) |
| Status | operational_use=false · never auto-CAP · no XGB/MLP demo promotion on this label regime |
Leave-one-positive-out (LOPO): for each of the 12 freeze positives, train on the remaining positives + all 60 negatives; score the held-out positive vs negatives. At best F1 (~t=0.30): typically 11 TP / 1 FN / 0 FP.
Contrast: denser LOPO unique AP 0.593 / F1 0.542 and spatial k-means AP ~0.38 / AUC ~0.75
(docs/117) — geographic honesty check, not a web promotion candidate.
Sole hard FN at best F1 on the freeze: nbi-sainoi-2025-07-19 —
Bang Kruai–Sai Noi Rd MEA cable manhole collapse (outer Nonthaburi), OOF p≈0.08.
Open OSM power/manhole proxies do not replace MEA underground inventory.
Recovering this FN without flooding FPs needs partner utility GIS.
Elevation, slope, relief, TWI proxy, curvature (+ pos_copdem_curv)
District pipe count / length / mean dim / coverage aggregates
Zenodo validation stations (~16 pts) IDW velocity / subsidence + local std — not citywide InSAR
DGR / Zenodo well density and static levels
Roads, waterways, rail, tunnels, MRT construction / transit distances; dense-road log count
Log building density 1–2 km + slope/relief × GOB interactions
Open-Meteo rain, amphoe flood index, clay IDW; HII × rain; WorldPop × PSI
Geofabrik / GHSL / GSW / HydroRIVERS / peri-urban trials through v1.88 — dual-gate failed; further open churn alone is not productive
Full feature list: web/pages/data/phase-b-rf-metadata.json ·
freeze: docs/100-phase-b-rf-v156-FREEZE.md
docs/117operational_use — still never auto-CAP without written sign-off.
operational_use=false always on this freeze. CAP drafts ≠ CAP issuance.
Prefer dashboard.cfoth.ai. sinkalert.com is often Cloudflare-stale
vs Contabo — do not treat afolio as source of truth unless a fresh CF deploy is confirmed.
operational_use:false)
API →
Relative: RF freeze status (this host)
Open →
Relative: research compare map
Open →
Metadata JSON (frozen model card)
JSON →
Repo docs: docs/100-phase-b-rf-v156-FREEZE.md ·
docs/106-label-harvest-bmr-2026-07-29.md ·
docs/007-phase-b-scientific-rf-spec.md ·
docs/000-AGENT-MAIN-REFERENCE.md
No invented evidence — these are the public endpoints (and what they mean) for the “research-only / never auto-CAP” claim.
Separately, SinkAlert has an OIC InsurTech Award 2026 prep page for Challenge #3 (disaster-related risk awareness for insurers). That is an adjacent InsurTech track — same research RF honesty rules, different audience and mission from this GISTDA GIS/RS brief. Do not mix CAP / insurance claims into the GISTDA data partnership ask.
OIC InsurTech pitch → · research RF only · not operational rating